Quarterly Check-in – April 2024

Portfolio Manager Sam LaBell discussed key economic trends and investment strategies for the remainder of 2024, focusing on the slowing growth in the U.S. and Canada and the impact of fiscal stimulus on inflation.

Oil & gas industry

In a 30-minute webinar, Portfolio Manager Sam LaBell discussed key economic trends and investment strategies for the remainder of 2024, focusing on the slowing growth in the U.S. and Canada and the impact of fiscal stimulus on inflation. He sees risks of a near-term correction tied to earnings expectations and valuations, but there are still opportunities for risk-adjusted gains.

Highlights:

  • Key economic factors to watch in 2024: U.S. consumer-led growth is slowing; in Canada, we are already seeing consumer weakness. Continued fiscal stimulus is slowing progress on inflation. We see risks of a near-term correction tied to earnings expectations and valuations, but there are still opportunities for risk-adjusted gains.
  • Setting a target for the S&P 500 in 2025: “Earnings really do have to beat that consensus for there to be a lot of upside in terms of valuation,” he said. Canadian valuations are at a discount to U.S. valuations.
  • Sector allocation for the Veritas Canadian Equity Fund: We are significantly underweight financials and overweight utilities, energy and real estate. “Right now, the case looks very robust for oil to stay above US$80 per barrel, and that’s very good for some of the oil sands players that are generating very high free cash flow.”
  • Sector allocations for the Veritas Absolute Return Fund: Highest net exposures energy, industrials and materials.
  • Veritas top fund picks YTD: Manulife Financial Corp. (NYSE, TSX: MFC), Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE, TSX: CVE), Aritzia Inc. (TSX: ATX), TFI International Inc. (NYSE, TSX: TFII), Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (NYSE, TSX: CP) and Constellation Software Inc. (TSX: CSU).
  • Top short picks YTD: Canadian Tire Corp. (TSX: CTC.a), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD, TSX: ABX) and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: INE). “Our goal with the shorts is to set up a long/short spread against the long side of the book because that creates a piece of the return that is less correlated to the market. We’re not necessarily looking for a company that is going to zero but a company that is going to underperform the market.”
  • Veritas Canadian Equity Fund: Designed to outperform with lower volatility.
  • Veritas Absolute Return Fund: Designed to diversify equity exposures, it has low correlations to the index and low volatility. This is why investors should consider a liquid alternative fund.
  • Veritas Next Edge Premium Yield Fund: 5% annualized tax-advantaged monthly distribution with lower standard deviation.

 

 

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